Bitcoin’s price dipped nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, briefly falling to around $105,600, but market sentiment remained resilient, reflecting confidence among traders even as the third quarter gets underway.
According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin hovered close to $108,000 before its latest retracement. The popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor emotion and momentum, registered a “Greed” reading of 63 out of 100 on Wednesday—only one point down from Tuesday’s level.
Despite the price slip, analysts say investors appear largely unfazed, with many still positioning for the next push toward all-time highs.
Historically Weak Quarter Could Challenge Bulls
Bitcoin enters July against a backdrop of cautious optimism—and historical headwinds.
Crypto analysts have reminded traders that the third quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest, citing a pattern of thinner liquidity and lower volumes over the summer months.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a modest 5.47% gain in Q3, according to CoinGlass data. Applying that average growth rate to this year would put Bitcoin near $111,000 by September 30, just below the all-time high of $111,970 set in May.
After Monday’s rally brought Bitcoin within striking distance of $109,000, short-term selling pressure returned, capping near-term momentum.
Q2 Performance Aligns With Historical Norms
While July’s start has been subdued, Bitcoin ended Q2 with strength. The asset posted a 31% gain, closing June at around $108,383—beating its historical second-quarter average return of 27% since 2014.
Other metrics continue to signal that traders remain heavily weighted toward Bitcoin. Its market dominance has climbed to roughly 65.5%, up nearly 13% year-to-date, reflecting strong preference over altcoins.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index remains firmly in “Bitcoin Season” territory with a score of 21 out of 100, showing limited appetite for rotating into smaller tokens.
However, some caution has crept back into sentiment. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno noted Wednesday that the firm’s Bitcoin Bull Score Metric—a gauge of bullish conviction—has dipped back to neutral levels.
“Bitcoin Bull Score is in NEUTRAL territory now—50,” Moreno wrote.
“It needs to be 60 or above for prices to sustain a rally.”
Quick Facts
- Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to trade around $105,560, but market sentiment remains in “Greed.”
- Historically, Q3 has been Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with an average gain of 5.47% since 2013.
- Q2 performance was strong, with a 31% gain, topping the long-term average.
- Bitcoin dominance is at 65.5%, but bullish momentum indicators are now neutral.
