For over a decade, central banks have styled themselves as the architects of global stability. They print, they taper, they pivot — all with the confident posture of long-term planners guiding the economy toward prosperity. But as macro veteran Mark Connors made abundantly clear on The CoinRock Show, that confidence is a mirage.
“They [Feds] will continue to print money,” he said,
“And they’re going to continue to light fires and put them out until we have a debt load that I don’t know what the end game is except to own Bitcoin.”
Connors would know. With over 35 years of experience in global markets and hedge fund risk strategy — including his tenure at Credit Suisse and as Director of Research at 3iQ Corp — he’s watched the entire financial ecosystem bend under the weight of its own excess. And now, as he sees it, the people pulling the levers have fewer options than ever.
From Monetary Strategy to Emergency Response
Central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, were once seen as the backstop — stepping in during exceptional periods like 2008 or COVID-19 to stabilize the system. But that era is gone. Today, intervention isn’t the exception — it’s the rule.
“We have an interest problem. Scott Bessent, our Treasury Secretary, knows it,” Connors said bluntly.
“He’s trying to get interest rates lower, but we don’t control the interest rates anymore unless we buy our own debt.”
The U.S. now holds over $34 trillion in debt, with more than a third maturing within the next 12 months. That’s trillions in bonds that need to be rolled over — not at near-zero rates, but at 4–5%. Connors compared it to a household with $125,000 in credit card debt on a $100,000 income. Rate hikes aren’t just painful now — they’re impossible.
This is why the “illusion of control” is so dangerous. Central banks still speak in frameworks, projections, and policy paths. But the truth is far more reactionary. The system is so leveraged that every hike, every auction, every CPI print becomes a crisis trigger.
The MOVE Index and the Real Signal of Distress
One of Connors’ most important points — and one that crypto investors need to take seriously — is that equity markets are no longer the canary in the coal mine. That role now belongs to the MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in U.S. Treasury markets.
“The bond market is the thing to watch.The move index is the metric, not the VIX,” he said.
“That’s Bessent’s report card. And right now he’s getting a C minus.”
Why does this matter? Because if Treasury auctions start to fail — if buyers begin demanding higher yields or backing away entirely — the Fed will have no choice but to step in through stealth QE. That means more asset purchases, more liquidity injections, and more distortion of free markets.
It’s not about inflation anymore. It’s about keeping the bond market from seizing up. That’s the definition of managing panic.
What Crypto Still Doesn’t Get About Macro
For crypto-native traders, the idea that macro matters more than a protocol upgrade can be a hard pill to swallow. But Connors insists that the macro regime shift is no longer coming — it’s here.
“It [Bitcoin] is a decentralized technology network and every business that’s surviving is a network based on the internet,” he added.
“Gold is not. Our banking system is not. Effectively, it’s creaking and broken and requires leverage to survive. You know, Bitcoin doesn’t.”
Bitcoin is no longer just a hedge against inflation. It’s a lifeboat from a monetary system that’s cannibalizing itself. Every round of quantitative tightening ends in a panic. Every tightening cycle leads to even larger stimulus. The cycle is breaking down — and Connors argues that it’s happening in plain sight.
The New Role of Central Banks: Buy Time
The illusion of control persists because people want to believe it. But Connors painted a more honest picture: central banks today are not solving problems — they’re delaying consequences. And with every delay, the consequences grow.
- Debt service is crowding out fiscal budgets.
- Bond market stress is climbing.
- Confidence in fiat regimes is eroding.
The era of central bank omnipotence is over. What remains is a group of institutions trying to delay the next fire while pretending they’re building a future.
And in the middle of all this, Bitcoin quietly becomes more relevant by the day.
Final Thought: This Is the Panic Phase — Not the Recovery Phase
The biggest mistake investors can make right now is assuming that central banks still have a plan. As Connors made clear, they’re playing defense, not offense. The Fed isn’t guiding the economy through turbulence. It’s holding the walls up with duct tape.
That’s why understanding macro isn’t optional anymore — especially for crypto investors. If you’re only watching charts and narratives, you’re missing the quiet collapse behind the curtain.
Because when the system relies on faith, and that faith breaks, it’s not just rates that shift — it’s reality.
And in that new reality, Bitcoin doesn’t need to win on speed or hype.
It just needs to survive — while everything else tries to hold itself together.
