Standard Chartered has sharply lowered its Ethereum price forecast, cutting its year-end 2025 target by 60% to $4,000 from a previous estimate of $10,000. The decision reflects Ethereum’s declining market dominance and intensifying competition from layer 2 blockchains.
The bank’s analysts cited Ethereum’s March 2024 Dencun upgrade as a pivotal moment. While the upgrade reduced transaction fees and increased net issuance, it failed to preserve Ethereum’s market position.
Instead, blockchain activity has shifted toward layer 2 solutions, particularly Base, a network owned by Coinbase that redistributes its profits to the company.
“Ethereum’s fees-to-GDP ratio has also fallen to a level equal to those of Base and the OP Mainnet,”
Said Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered. “Ethereum has essentially commoditized itself within its self-created layer 2 framework.”
StanChart estimates that Ethereum has already lost $50 billion in market capitalization due to blockchain GDP declines, with further losses expected as Base strengthens its foothold. The shift suggests that Ethereum is losing its ability to capture and retain network revenue, weakening its economic model.
The bank’s analysts also questioned Ethereum’s long-term value proposition. While the network is projected to maintain an 80% share of the tokenized real-world assets market, Kendrick noted that this may no longer be enough to sustain bullish price expectations.
He suggested that only a major policy shift by the Ethereum Foundation, such as taxing layer 2 networks, could reverse the trend. “We see this as unlikely,” he added.
Ethereum’s underperformance is also reflected in its anticipated decline relative to Bitcoin. StanChart expects the ETH-BTC ratio to drop 0.015 by the end of 2027, marking its lowest point since early 2017.
This trend is expected to weigh further on Ethereum’s valuation, contributing to its revised price projections for the coming years.
Despite the downgrade, Ethereum’s price in U.S. dollars is still expected to rise from its current level of $1,900, driven by a broader rally in Bitcoin and other major digital assets.
However, the bank’s longer-term forecasts indicate muted growth compared to prior expectations. StanChart now projects Ethereum prices at $5,000 in 2026, $6,000 in 2027, and $7,500 for 2028 and 2029.
