Bitcoin may be on track to reach a $500,000 valuation by the end of President Donald Trump’s current term, according to a new investor note from Standard Chartered. The bank’s bullish projection is driven by growing institutional demand and a rise in indirect sovereign exposure through investments in Michael Saylor’s Strategy—a company now holding over 576,000 BTC.
In a note published Tuesday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, pointed to 13F filings revealing that 12 government-linked institutions—including U.S. state pension funds in California and New York, South Korea’s National Pension Service, the Swiss National Bank, and the Saudi Central Bank—increased their Strategy holdings in Q1 2025.
Collectively, these positions represent indirect exposure to about 31,000 Bitcoin.
Kendrick explained that institutions are using Strategy (traded under the ticker MSTR) as a proxy for Bitcoin—particularly in regions where direct crypto exposure is legally restricted.
“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he wrote.
Trump-Era Crypto Policies Boost Investor Sentiment
Standard Chartered’s $500,000 price target is premised on a favorable policy climate under the Trump administration. The bank identified several legislative shifts that could act as tailwinds, including the expected repeal of SEC accounting guideline SAB 121 and proposals for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
These factors, the note argued, could meaningfully expand institutional and sovereign appetite for Bitcoin, especially as traditional finance increasingly overlaps with digital asset infrastructure.
Kendrick also underscored the importance of 13F filings—mandatory disclosures from institutional managers with over $100 million in assets—as clear indicators of mainstream adoption trends.
Institutions Shift From ETFs to MicroStrategy as Proxy
While spot Bitcoin ETFs were initially hailed as a major gateway for institutional capital, recent activity suggests some entities are reducing ETF exposure in favor of indirect holdings through equities like Strategy.
For example, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board liquidated its ETF-based Bitcoin holdings—roughly 3,400 BTC—during Q1 2025.
Conversely, Strategy has become the asset of choice for several state pension funds. According to the note, funds in California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky collectively added exposure equivalent to 1,000 BTC via MSTR stock.
This trend also extends globally. The Mubadala Investment Company, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, increased its indirect exposure to Bitcoin from 4,700 to 5,000 BTC during the same period, validating the shift from ETFs to Bitcoin-linked equities.
Quick Facts
- Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028, fueled by institutional demand and favorable Trump-era crypto policies.
- Government-linked entities—including U.S. state pensions and central banks—now indirectly hold 31,000 BTC via Strategy stock.
- The bank cited a decline in sovereign ETF exposure, including Wisconsin’s 3,400 BTC sell-off, alongside increased MSTR holdings by four U.S. state pension funds.
- Policy changes like the repeal of SAB 121 and proposals for a national Bitcoin reserve are seen as key drivers of long-term price growth.
