The memecoin boom on Pump.fun is losing steam. The platform’s graduation rate for the fourth consecutive week—the percentage of tokens that successfully transition from incubation to active trading—has fallen below 1 percent, according to Dune Analytics data.
Graduation requires a token to meet liquidity and trading benchmarks before being listed on a Solana decentralized exchange (DEX). Historically, Pump.fun’s graduation rate has never been particularly high. However, its decline signals waning investor appetite for memecoins, often criticized as speculative bets with little long-term viability.
A Declining Success Rate
Pump.fun’s highest recorded graduation rate occurred in November when 1.67 percent of memecoins transitioned to full trading status. At that time, the platform launched 323,000 tokens weekly, with roughly 5,400 graduating. Since then, token launches have dropped significantly, and the number of successful graduations has followed suit.
Over the past four weeks, weekly token graduations have averaged around 1,500, a sharp decline from previous highs. February’s data shows that only 11,906 tokens graduated from a total of 1,140,162 launched, resulting in a 1.04 percent success rate—the lowest recorded so far.
The declining graduation rate is part of a broader trend of decreasing enthusiasm for memecoins. While previously seen as high-risk, high-reward investments, memecoins are increasingly being abandoned before reaching sustainable liquidity levels.
Matrixport analysts have linked the struggling memecoin market to broader market conditions, including shifts in dollar-denominated liquidity.
Despite a weakening U.S. dollar and improved inflation data, memecoins continue to perform poorly. Over the past month, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from 107.61 on February 28 to 103.95 on March 14, but this has done little to revive demand for speculative crypto assets.
Impact on the Crypto Market
The continued downturn in memecoins has contributed to a significant contraction in the broader cryptocurrency market. According to Matrixport, the recent decline in speculative token trading has been wiping out approximately $1 trillion from total crypto market capitalization.
“This redistribution of wealth may lead investors to remain cautious about deploying further capital, causing rebounds—even those triggered by better-than-expected inflation data—to be limited,” the firm reported.
Bitcoin has also felt the aftershocks. Analysts warn that continued investor caution in the memecoin sector could result in further price declines for Bitcoin, with projections suggesting a potential retracement to $73,000.
Meanwhile, Pump.fun’s overall trading volume has mirrored the declining success rate. The platform has facilitated billions in trading, but recent months have seen diminishing activity. For now, memecoins remain highly volatile, with few showing signs of long-term sustainability.
