Excitement over Bitcoin’s new all-time high has flooded into the world of prediction markets, where traders are betting millions on the next major price milestone. Within hours of Bitcoin surpassing $109,000 on Wednesday, speculative activity surged across platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad Markets.
On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, Bitcoin contracts recorded more than $19 million in trading volume. Traders are pricing in a 93% probability that BTC will hit $110,000 before the end of May. Odds drop off at higher levels: 49% for $115,000, 8% for $125,000, and just 1% for an explosive jump to $150,000 or $200,000.

Regulated U.S. exchange Kalshi has also seen a spike in speculative flows. More than $3.5 million has been committed to a contract forecasting Bitcoin’s year-end price. Based on current probabilities, there’s a 70% chance Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by December 2025. Longer-shot targets like $150,000 and $160,000 are priced in at 37% and 31%, respectively.
Crypto-native Myriad Markets launched a new BTC prediction pool this week, with traders giving a 21.4% chance that Bitcoin will exceed $115,000 by May 25. The listing went live shortly after the recent price spike, reflecting heightened short-term bullish sentiment.
Trump’s $TRUMP Dinner Sparks Meme Coin Frenzy
Bitcoin’s rally past $109,000 coincided with a headline-grabbing event linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump: a private dinner for holders of his Solana-based meme coin, $TRUMP.
The invitation-only event, scheduled for Thursday, will host over 200 individuals who qualified by holding sizable amounts of the coin. According to CBS MoneyWatch, the required holdings ranged from $53,000 to more than $16 million.
Among the high-profile attendees is Chinese billionaire and crypto figure Justin Sun, who claims to be the largest $TRUMP holder. Guests are reportedly flying in from Australia, Singapore, and other international hubs. While most identities remain undisclosed, critics have expressed concern over foreign influence surrounding a politically charged digital asset.
Bitcoin Pulls Back Slightly, Market Remains Elevated
While Bitcoin touched a high of $111,500, it has since cooled to just above $110,000—down over 0.2% in the past few hours, though still up over a 24-hour period.

Despite the minor dip, market activity remains robust. According to CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization hit $3.6 trillion on Thursday morning, a 1.34% gain from the day before. Trading volume also jumped nearly 27%, suggesting heightened engagement across centralized and decentralized exchanges.
Strong capital flows into prediction markets, ETFs, and high-risk altcoins continue to reinforce investor conviction, even amid short-term volatility.
Quick Facts
- Polymarket traders give BTC a 93% chance of hitting $110K by May.
- Kalshi contracts show a 70% chance of BTC reaching $125K by year-end.
- Trump’s $TRUMP coin dinner draws 200+ attendees, including Justin Sun.
- Bitcoin retraced slightly to $108K; total crypto market cap hit $3.38T.