Escalating trade tensions between the European Union and the United States have sparked fresh concerns in global markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) now at risk of a correction below $75,000. Analysts warn that retaliatory tariffs, set to take effect in April, could inject volatility into the crypto market, influencing investor sentiment and capital flows.
The European Commission confirmed on March 12 that it will impose counter-tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods, responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This latest escalation in trade disputes has raised concerns about broader macroeconomic uncertainty, which could spill over into Bitcoin and risk assets.
“Counter tariffs aren’t a positive signal as they suggest a potential bounce back from the other side again,” said Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, in a statement to Cointelegraph. He noted that Bitcoin could revisit $75,000, though stablecoins and real-world assets (RWAs) holding at record highs may provide a foundation for a rebound.
How Tariffs Could Impact Bitcoin’s Trajectory
While Bitcoin has historically benefited from economic uncertainty as a hedge against inflation and fiat instability, trade war escalations could drive investors toward short-term caution. Some analysts believe Bitcoin may see a retracement below $72,000 as part of a macro correction before its next leg up in this bull cycle.
However, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, emphasized that while macroeconomic conditions play a role, Bitcoin’s price is also shaped by institutional adoption, regulatory updates, and increasing real-world utility. This broader resilience, he suggests, may cushion Bitcoin from excessive downside pressure.
The EU’s counter-tariffs will be fully implemented by April 13, but April 1 marks the end of Europe’s current suspension of tariffs on U.S. goods. Additionally, Trump’s threat to increase auto tariffs on Canadian imports by April 2 could further destabilize global markets.
Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, pointed out that markets may remain in a risk-off mode until April 2, awaiting reciprocal tariff announcements and potential negotiations. “Tariff noise is likely to continue till after April 2, limiting risk appetite,” she explained. However, she also noted tentative signs of stabilization in U.S. equities and Bitcoin, signaling that traders closely monitor relative strength index (RSI) lows for potential rebounds.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Investors?
While the $75,000 level is a critical support zone, the broader Bitcoin outlook remains bullish in the long term. Investors should monitor tariff negotiations, U.S. policy shifts, and institutional flows to assess potential market reactions.
If macro uncertainty persists, Bitcoin’s correction could deepen, but if institutional buyers step in, BTC could quickly rebound, setting the stage for its next breakout. Either way, April’s developments will be crucial in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term price direction.
