This episode of The CoinRock Show with Matthias Mazur was a deep dive into the state of the crypto market—its recent price fluctuations, the underlying macroeconomic forces at play, and what to expect in the coming weeks. As always, Matthias kept it real, balancing both bullish optimism and hard-hitting skepticism.
Crypto Market Faces Choppy Trends
Matthias wasted no time addressing the current mood in the crypto space. Market timelines are dead, engagement is down, and the atmosphere is negative. This, according to him, is classic bear market behaviour.
However, he said that we’re not officially in a bear market just yet—instead, the market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move.
“I’ve been saying choppy for months, and here we are, stuck in an annoying chop between $78K and $85K.“
Currently hovering around $81K, Bitcoin has seen a 25% decline from its March highs of $109K, reflecting broader market uncertainty. Trading volumes have dropped nearly 30% across major exchanges, indicating lower participation from retail and institutional investors.
Bitcoin’s dominance is 52.1%, showing that while BTC remains relatively stable, altcoins are experiencing steeper declines. Ethereum, for instance, is down 15% in the past three weeks, trading around $1,800, while other major altcoins have suffered 30-50% corrections from their recent peaks.
Looking at historical patterns, Matthias reminded viewers that crypto cycles always include 20–40% pullbacks before major breakouts. During the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin experienced three major corrections of 30% or more before reaching its all-time high of $20K.
Similarly, in the 2021 cycle, BTC saw multiple 20-35% drawdowns before peaking at $69K. The current $78K-$85K range aligns with these past consolidations, suggesting that Bitcoin may mirror previous pre-breakout behaviour.
However, what makes this cycle different is the macro backdrop. U.S. economic policies, liquidity conditions, and regulatory developments are now the primary drivers of crypto market sentiment.
Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi has dropped from $95 billion to $85 billion, indicating a cooling off in decentralized finance activity. Additionally, funding rates for perpetual futures contracts have flipped negative; traders are paying a premium to short Bitcoin and Ethereum—a sign of bearish sentiment dominating the market.
Matthias emphasized that while this choppy price action is frustrating, it’s a normal phase in crypto market cycles. This period presents an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate, research, and prepare for the next major move.
No Major Bullish Catalyst Yet
The discussion turned sharply toward skepticism when Matthias analyzed the potential catalysts for a new bull run, emphasizing that macro forces—not crypto-specific events—will dictate Bitcoin’s next big move.
He pointed out that interest rates and liquidity remain the most critical factors, as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies directly impact market sentiment.
Without a shift in liquidity—meaning an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE)—there is little reason to expect a sudden surge in Bitcoin’s price.
Additionally, he highlighted the growing impact of tariff policies under the Trump administration, which could introduce further economic instability, affecting not just traditional markets but also the crypto space.
Bitcoin will unlikely break out of its current range if these macroeconomic levers remain unchanged.
Matthias reinforced this harsh reality: “Until something changes on a macro level, Bitcoin isn’t sending. No interest rate cuts, no QE—just chop, chop, chop.”
The Optimists vs. The Skeptics
Matthias noted that the crypto community is split on whether this is just a pause before another rally or a sign that the bull run is over.
He clarified that while he’s not outright bearish, he’s skeptical. He reminded viewers that this is a great time to build, research, and prepare—but not to expect an immediate rally to $120K or beyond.
Another major talking point was the CryptoQuant CEO’s recent statement that the bull cycle is over, and the market could see 6-12 months of sideways or bearish price action.
While Matthias disagreed with the 12-month timeframe, he acknowledged that macro conditions will determine the next big leg up.
Security Concerns & Industry Developments
The conversation also covered major security breaches and regulatory updates:
- OKX Halting DEX Aggregation: OKX temporarily shut down its DEX aggregator, raising concerns about the balance between security and decentralization.
- North Korea’s Growing Bitcoin Reserves: Following a massive cyber heist, North Korea now holds the third-largest Bitcoin reserves globally, a development highlighting crypto’s growing geopolitical influence.
- Brazil’s Push for Bitcoin Salaries: In a bullish move, Brazil is considering legislation allowing salaries to be paid in Bitcoin, signaling greater mainstream adoption.
The Long Game of Crypto
Matthias wrapped up the episode by reminding viewers that patience is key.
While painful, markets move in cycles, and this correction is nothing new for seasoned investors. He left his audience with a critical perspective:
- The tourists are gone. Crypto bull runs attract new investors, but only the dedicated ones remain during downturns.
- Now is the time to research, learn, and position for the next cycle. When the next big macro shift happens, those who stay will reap the rewards.
His closing advice? Stay grounded, avoid emotional trading, and don’t stare at your portfolio every day—because right now, it’s just chopping.
