Bitcoin’s bull run is officially over at least according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Despite prices hovering near all-time highs around $82,000, Ju warns that technical indicators paint a very different picture: bearish pressure is mounting, and a long period of sideways or downward action could be ahead.
“When even large capital can’t push prices upward, it’s a bear,” Ju stated in a detailed analysis on X.
His assessment is grounded in deep on-chain data, particularly the divergence between Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and Market Cap, a dynamic he says clearly marks the end of the current bull cycle.
Ju’s argument hinges on the growing disconnect between realized capitalization and market capitalization. While market cap is calculated using Bitcoin’s current price multiplied by total circulating supply, realized cap takes a more nuanced approach, valuing BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved.
In bull markets, these two metrics typically rise in tandem. But today, the gap is widening.
Ju points out that although realized cap continues to rise—suggesting fresh capital is entering the market—market cap is declining, showing that new money isn’t having its usual price impact. That, he argues, is a clear signal of increasing selling pressure and diminishing bullish momentum.
Big Buys, Small Impact
Perhaps the clearest example of this divergence is Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase. The company acquired 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion, a move that in past market cycles would have fueled a strong rally.
Ju contrasts that with Strategy’s earlier acquisitions during periods of low selling pressure, which successfully pushed Bitcoin’s price higher. The difference now, he says, underscores how difficult it has become to move the market—even with billions on the table.
Technically, Bitcoin isn’t helping its case either. Price action is consolidating within a bearish pennant pattern, a formation that typically precedes downward movement. While some analysts believe Bitcoin may be decoupling from traditional markets like the S&P 500, short-term outlooks remain shaky.
According to Crypto Sat, a drop to $80,000 is highly likely in the near term. Meanwhile, Ju’s forecast is even more sobering: a true reversal could take up to six to twelve months.
“Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months,” Ju warned.
Still, not all voices are echoing doom and gloom. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently likened Bitcoin to gold, praising it as a potential store of value—a striking endorsement from a high-level policymaker.
Despite the pessimism from analysts, this kind of institutional confidence continues to support Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance.
No Crash, But No Fireworks Either
Ju’s call doesn’t mean a crash is imminent it means the days of rapid, euphoric price rallies may be behind us for now. If his timeline proves accurate, Bitcoin may drift or dip for the next 6–12 months, even as fundamentals and long-term adoption continue to strengthen.
For investors, the message is clear: this isn’t the time to chase breakouts, it’s a time to stay informed, manage risk, and think long-term.
