Bitcoin’s next bear market may not be as severe as past downturns, with analysts suggesting that $70,000 could mark its bottom. Network economist Timothy Peterson has outlined a potential 33% decline in Bitcoin’s price if market conditions deteriorate, but historical trends suggest opportunistic investors could prevent a full drop to $57,000.
Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, warns that delaying Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could catalyze the next Bitcoin bear market. “What it needs is a trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year,” Peterson wrote in a March 8 X post.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this uncertainty in a March 7 speech in New York. “We do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell said, signaling that rate cuts may not come soon. If the central bank holds firm, Peterson believes it could contribute to broader financial market weakness, dragging Bitcoin’s price lower alongside traditional equities.
Predicting the Market’s Decline
Using a Nasdaq decline model, Peterson estimated that a 17% drop in the index could translate into a 33% drop in Bitcoin’s value. Given Bitcoin’s price at $86,199 at the time of his analysis, this would imply a floor of $57,000. However, Peterson said historical investor behavior suggests Bitcoin likely won’t fall that low.
“Traders and opportunists hover over Bitcoin like vultures,” he explained. When markets expect a specific price floor, buyers often step in early, preventing a full decline.
Peterson pointed to 2022 as an example, when expectations of a $12,000 Bitcoin bottom were met with resistance, keeping prices at $16,000 instead. Applying a similar pattern to the current cycle, he estimated that Bitcoin’s bottom would be around $71,000, or 25% above the predicted low.
Historical Comparisons and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin previously traded at $71,000 on 6 November 2024, following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, before rallying to $100,000 by 5 December. The possibility of a repeat scenario remains uncertain, but investor sentiment plays a critical role.
“The bull-bear spread is at the lowest level since the COVID crash and Global Financial Crisis”
Peterson noted, suggesting that many investors remain bearish. Historically, such sentiment has been a strong buy signal rather than a sell indicator. While a bear market is possible, he does not view current conditions as a bubble.
Other analysts have echoed similar views. In January 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted a Bitcoin correction to $70,000-$75,000, calling it a “mini financial crisis” before a rebound to $250,000 by year-end. In December 2024, crypto mining firm Blockware Solutions projected a worst-case scenario price of $150,000 for 2025, assuming the Federal Reserve reverses its stance on rate cuts.
While Bitcoin remains highly volatile, the debate over its next bottom intensifies. Whether investors intervene before prices hit $57,000, or whether macroeconomic forces dictate further declines, remains to be seen.
