As geopolitical tensions rise and financial markets face uncertainty, executives at Bitwise Asset Management see Bitcoin gearing up for a major rally. With shifting global trade dynamics, bold government spending, and possible monetary stimulus on the horizon, they believe the digital asset is set for significant growth in the coming months.
Macroeconomic and Political Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Rise
Bitwise head of alpha strategies Jeff Park highlighted in a February 16 post on X that the world is “literally on the brink of max chaos.” Among the key factors driving this narrative is the U.S. House Republican budget plan, which proposes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, something that could drive up government spending. Additionally, Park pointed to former President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of reciprocal tariffs, which could further speed up deglobalization.
Another key factor is the anticipated shift in central bank policies. Park speculated that yield curve control (YCC) a measure in which central banks cap long-term interest rates—could soon be implemented. If that happens, it would mark a significant shift in monetary policy, encouraging more borrowing and investment. Historically, moves like this have boosted Bitcoin, as investors look for alternative stores of value.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the need for immediate interest rate changes in a speech on February 11. He highlighted the U.S. economy’s strength, suggesting there was no rush to adjust monetary policy. However, Bitcoin supporters believe that sooner or later, the Fed will have to inject more liquidity and ease monetary policy—moves that could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against the instability of traditional currencies.
Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin is on the Verge of Going Mainstream
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley echoed Park’s sentiments, expressing unprecedented optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory.
“People are wildly underestimating the massive leaps Bitcoin is going to take into the mainstream this year,”
Horsley said in a February 16 X post.
Park added that Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) percentile is at its lowest level all year, suggesting the asset could be gearing up for a big move. IV percentile measures the percentage of days over the past year in which Bitcoin’s volatility was lower than its current level, signaling a potentially explosive period ahead.
According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin’s volatility index currently sits at 50.90, down from a yearly high of 71.28. With the IV percentile sitting at just 12.3, Park believes many investors might be missing a rare opportunity.
Bitcoin Market Sentiment and Price Action
Despite this bullish outlook, Bitcoin has faced short-term volatility, dropping over 1.5% in the past 24 hours to trade just above $96,000, according to CoinGecko. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has ranged between $90,000 and $100,000, briefly reaching a peak of $108,786 in late January following Trump’s inauguration.
Market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, sits at 51 out of 100 as of February 17, placing it in the “Neutral” category. This marks an improvement from last week’s “Fear” level but remains below the more optimistic sentiment seen in previous months.
Bitcoin’s Big Moment: A Year That Could Change Everything
As the global financial landscape continues to shift, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against economic uncertainty is becoming more apparent. With increased institutional interest, evolving monetary policies, and rising geopolitical risks, Bitcoin’s potential for a substantial rally remains strong.
While skeptics caution against overestimating short-term catalysts, Bitwise executives maintain that the convergence of macroeconomic factors is setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major move. Whether or not the market fully embraces this view, the coming months will be critical in determining the cryptocurrency’s place in the evolving financial order.
