Bitcoin traders are recalibrating their expectations, with the $100,000 call option now surpassing the once-popular $120,000 bet. The shift in sentiment follows a sharp downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market, leading to more conservative positioning in the options market.
At press time, the $100,000 call stood as the most popular Bitcoin options contract, with a notional open interest of $1.55 billion. Meanwhile, the $120,000 call, which had led the market until last month, slipped to the second spot with a notional open interest of $1.33 billion. The notional open interest reflects the total dollar value of active contracts, providing insight into market sentiment and positioning.
Market Downturn Reshapes Expectations
The reallocation of options bets coincides with Bitcoin’s recent price crash, which saw the cryptocurrency fall below $80,000. This downturn has prompted traders to temper their bullish outlook, shifting their focus to a lower yet still optimistic strike price.
A call option grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price. The strong demand for $100,000 and $120,000 calls indicates that traders still expect significant upside, though they are hedging against near-term volatility.
The 25-delta risk reversals, a key metric measuring demand for higher strike calls relative to lower strike puts, currently reflect negative readings through the end of May. This suggests heightened demand for protective put options, signaling fears of further downside.
However, call options continue to dominate in the longer term. At press time, the total dollar value of outstanding call options exceeded $16 billion, nearly double the $8.35 billion in put options.
Cryptocurrency Market Faces Heavy Losses
The broader cryptocurrency market has been battered by a protracted downturn, with major indices dropping approximately 30% over the past three months. Ethereum and Solana have broken key technical levels, trading below their 200-day simple moving averages.
Ethereum has slipped beneath its 2024 low of $2,121, while Solana is testing critical support between $110,025 and $125,442. Bitcoin itself is hovering near the $78,189–$75,955 range, a level closely watched by traders.
Luis Francisco Ruiz, a market analyst, described the situation as a pivotal moment for crypto markets. “Markets are at a critical juncture,” he noted. “Bulls could see this as a buying opportunity, while bears may view it as the beginning of a broader downturn.” Bitcoin remains above its 200-day simple moving average, preserving its longer-term bullish structure despite recent weakness.
External Factors Drive Crypto Volatility
Two key events have contributed to the recent turmoil. A $1.5 million security breach at ByBit, a major cryptocurrency exchange, has rattled investor confidence. Simultaneously, the U.S. government’s announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve—initially seen as a bullish catalyst—has fallen short of market expectations. While the reserve signals increasing institutional recognition of Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, the lack of concrete purchase plans and reliance on seized assets have disappointed investors.
Adding to the uncertainty, analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research has pointed to broader structural challenges in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent report, he warned that Bitcoin’s path to $73,000 remains intact, but the market lacks a new catalyst to drive further gains.
“Bitcoin is steadily heading toward $73,000, reinforcing the accuracy of our bearish outlook,” he wrote. “However, for Bitcoin to surge beyond this level, a compelling new narrative must emerge.”
Thielen highlighted the fading enthusiasm for speculative crypto narratives, including the meme coin craze that fueled much of the market’s early 2025 rally. The collapse of meme tokens such as Trump Coin, which plummeted 86% from its peak, has led to declining retail participation. Solana, a key player in the meme coin ecosystem, has dropped 59% from its highs and is struggling to maintain support.
Beyond price action, Thielen emphasized weakening market fundamentals. Ethereum’s monthly revenue has fallen 90% from its 2021 peak of $1.6 billion to just $166 million in 2024. Solana briefly outpaced Ethereum’s revenue in February, but both networks have since suffered significant declines.
“This structural decline indicates a weakening foundation, making now a time for caution—not complacency,” he wrote
