One year after Bitcoin’s 2024 halving event, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is up more than 33%, showing resilience despite mounting global economic tensions. Analysts say the uptick may signal a shift in Bitcoin’s historical price cycle—thanks largely to accelerating institutional adoption and the growing impact of Bitcoin ETFs.
The halving, which took place in April 2024, reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, tightening Bitcoin’s supply issuance and reinforcing its deflationary model. Traditionally, Bitcoin’s halving events have triggered multi-year bull cycles, with price peaks typically arriving 12 to 18 months later.
But this cycle may be different. Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at asset tokenization platform Brickken, believes institutional capital is reshaping the rhythm of the market.
“I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for a stronger green light before they jump in,” he said.
Cardozo added that the current level of market maturity and liquidity could accelerate Bitcoin’s typical cycle, potentially pushing the next major price peak ahead of schedule.
“For the 2024 halving in May, that puts the bottom around Q3 this year and a peak mid-2026, but I think we might see things move a bit sooner because the market’s more mature now with more liquidity,” he said.
Rate Cuts and ETFs Fuel Faster Price Action
While Bitcoin’s deflationary design—cemented through its halving events—remains a core pillar of its long-term value, analysts are increasingly pointing to macroeconomic catalysts and institutional demand as key accelerators in the current cycle.
According to Cardozo, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still closely tied to U.S. monetary policy. A potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as May or June could inject fresh liquidity into the markets and “push Bitcoin up faster,” as investors seek out harder assets in an increasingly inflation-sensitive environment.
Meanwhile, institutional participation via Bitcoin ETFs is being credited with shortening the time between halving events and new all-time highs. Vugar Usi Zade, COO of Bitget, told Cointelegraph that consistent ETF inflows and strategic buying by large players are creating upward pressure faster than in previous cycles.
“With growing scarcity triggered by the halving, Bitcoin will likely retest its all-time high if it breaches the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks,” Usi Zade said.
“While the halving offers a good basis for growth based on demand and scarcity, the timeline for impact on price can vary over time.”
Data appears to support that thesis. Bitcoin reached its current peak of over $109,000 just 273 days after the 2024 halving—a notable acceleration compared to previous cycles, where similar highs took more than 500 days to materialize after the 2017 and 2021 halvings, respectively.
Despite this momentum, Usi Zade cautioned that Bitcoin’s price movement still hinges on traditional financial sentiment. The path ahead, he said, could be shaped as much by broader market confidence as by blockchain fundamentals.
Quick Facts
- Bitcoin has risen over 33% since the April 2024 halving event.
- Institutional investments and Bitcoin ETFs are accelerating the market cycle.
- Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $109,000 just 273 days after the halving.
- Analysts anticipate further growth, dependent on macroeconomic shifts and sustained institutional demand.
