Bitcoin surged past $93,000 on April 22, marking a 45-day high and mirroring gold’s record-setting climb, as markets responded to signs of a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions under President Trump. While investors continue to hedge against macroeconomic instability, analysts are raising questions about whether current futures data truly supports the optimism behind Bitcoin’s rally.
Despite a sharp $6,840 weekend jump, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium remains at an annualized 6%—a level typically seen in neutral market conditions. For some observers, that suggests measured optimism rather than the strong bullish conviction seen in past surges.
Analysts also highlighted a potential decoupling between Bitcoin and the broader stock market. While equities have struggled, Bitcoin’s relative strength—fueled by institutional inflows and heightened whale activity—suggests it’s increasingly being treated as a macro hedge rather than a risk-on asset.
As Bitcoin flirts with the $95,000 threshold, sentiment remains mixed. While on-chain signals and macro tailwinds support further upside, futures market behavior reflects cautious enthusiasm.
Traders Remain Cautious as March Haunts Market
Even as Bitcoin inches toward $95,000, many traders remain wary. The $90K level, once a symbol of momentum, now serves as a psychological barrier following BTC’s sharp March rejection. On March 3, Bitcoin briefly touched $95,000 before plunging over 14% to $81,464 in a single day—leaving traders cautious about another potential bull trap.
This skepticism is reinforced by Bitcoin’s relative underperformance against gold, which has consistently logged new all-time highs in 2025. Since its January peak of $109,346, Bitcoin has declined 16%, tracking closely with the S&P 500’s 14.5% dip, suggesting that the speculative frenzy of early Q1 may be cooling.
Still, Bitcoin shows resilience when compared to major tech stocks. Its 32% drawdown remains smaller than recent losses from Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla, helping reinforce its reputation as a maturing asset.
Markets were momentarily lifted on April 22 after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current trade standoff with China as “unsustainable,” signaling a potential pivot in tariff policy. However, that optimism was tempered by President Trump’s renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he accused of slowing the economy by holding off on interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin Climbs as Treasury Demand Rises
Despite concerns over slowing economic growth, investors are flocking to short-term government debt. Yields on the two-year U.S. Treasury note have dropped from 4.04% to 3.81% in a month, indicating a flight to safety, even at the cost of lower returns.
Bitcoin’s strength in this environment is notable, but data from the options market reveals that professional traders remain hesitant. The 25% delta skew, a key metric of sentiment in BTC options pricing, currently sits at -2%—a neutral stance.
This skew typically rises above 6% in bearish conditions and drops below -6% during strong bullish sentiment. The last time the metric reflected bullish conviction was January 30, when Bitcoin traded near $105,000.
In summary, while Bitcoin continues to outpace traditional risk-off assets like Treasurys, institutional traders have yet to show strong commitment. Until conviction builds in the derivatives market, the current rally may be driven more by guarded optimism than genuine market conviction.
Quick Facts
- Bitcoin surged to $93,500, its highest level in 45 days, amid easing trade tensions.
- Futures data suggests cautious sentiment, with a 6% annualized premium indicating neutral momentum.
- Traders remain wary of a potential pullback at the $90K–$95K resistance zone.
- Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from stock markets, acting more like a macro hedge.
