Bernstein analysts urge investors to prepare for the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market, which they believe is being driven by a combination of ETF momentum, political shifts, and regulatory tailwinds.
According to Bernstein, the current bull market began in Q4 2023, as speculation over spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the U.S. drove Bitcoin from $25,000 to $46,000 by the time the ETFs launched on January 11, 2024.
The next wave of growth came from strong ETF inflows, pushing Bitcoin to an all-time high of approximately $74,000, before the market entered a multi-month consolidation phase.
Bernstein identifies a third catalyst: Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance following his November 2024 presidential victory, which fueled market optimism with promises to:
- Establish the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the world”
- Create a national Bitcoin reserve
- Implement a favorable digital asset regulatory framework
These developments propelled Bitcoin to a new record high of approximately $109,000 on Inauguration Day in January 2025.
Bernstein now projects that the next leg of the bull market is loading, urging investors to position themselves for another potential breakout driven by continued institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macro-political shifts.
U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve and Sovereign Wealth Fund
These analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, predict that the next leg of the Bitcoin bull market will be driven by U.S. policy shifts and the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve under the direction of the Crypto Task Force, led by David Sacks.
Bernstein notes that the Trump administration is planning a U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve, which could be funded by the Federal Reserve or U.S. Treasury, though congressional approval would be required if the Federal Reserve finances it.
Alongside the reserve, the administration announced a plan to create a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). According to TheBlock, Bernstein believes this SWF could invest in strategic U.S. crypto firms, viewing them as key assets in the evolving digital economy.
Chhugani suggests the creation of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve could ignite a global race among nations to accumulate Bitcoin, driving demand and accelerating the current bull market.
Bernstein Highlights Institutional Moves as Another Key Catalysts
According to the analysis, the Bitcoin bull market will also be driven by major institutional investments. Recent 13F filings with the SEC reveal significant institutional exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling heightened confidence from large financial entities. The filings show that Mubadala Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, disclosed a $437 million position in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Paul Tudor Jones’ investment firm increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings, further cementing institutional interest.
Bernstein also cited the aggressive accumulation by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), which recently purchased an additional $742 million in Bitcoin, raising its total holdings to 478,740 BTC. This acquisition strengthens Strategy’s position as the largest public Bitcoin holder, intensifying supply scarcity.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience robust demand, with year-to-date inflows nearing $5 billion, which Bernstein projects could reach $60 billion by 2025. Additionally, the recent repeal of SAB 121 by the SEC, which now permits banks to custody digital assets, is expected to significantly increase institutional participation in the crypto market.
Bernstein reaffirms its $200,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025, anticipating that the confluence of institutional demand, corporate acquisitions, and regulatory advancements will fuel the next leg of the bull market.
Highlights:
- Price Target: Bernstein projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2025.
- Current Price: Approximately $96,312 as of February 17, 2025.
- Key Drivers: Regulatory support, institutional adoption, and strong market demand.
