Tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump could set off a chain of economic shifts favorable to Bitcoin, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. In a series of posts on X, Hayes outlined how the proposed trade measures may weaken the U.S. dollar, trigger global monetary easing, and push investors toward Bitcoin.
“Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” Hayes wrote on April 3. His remarks followed the announcement of sweeping tariffs set to take effect April 5, including a 10% base rate on all imports and higher rates targeting specific nations—34% on China, 20% on the European Union, and 24% on Japan.
Trump announces tariffs “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” Hayes wrote on April 3. His remarks followed the announcement of sweeping tariffs set to take effect April 5, including a 10% base rate on all imports and higher rates targeting specific nations—34% on China, 20% on the European Union, and 24% on Japan.
Hayes pointed to several factors driving his forecast. Chief among them is a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, fueled by foreign investors offloading American tech stocks. “The $ is weakening alongside foreigners selling US tech stocks and bringing money home,” Hayes wrote. He added that this trend benefits both Bitcoin and gold in the medium term.
The market reacted swiftly. On April 3, the Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst single-day point loss in history, dropping by 1,060 points. According to the trading account The Kobeissi Letter, the index came within 1.5% of triggering its first circuit breaker since March 2020. Hayes cited the drop as further evidence that macroeconomic instability could favor Bitcoin.
Hayes also emphasized the potential for retaliatory currency moves. With an “effective 65% tariff” on Chinese goods, he predicted Beijing might allow the yuan to weaken beyond 8.00 per dollar. “We need #China to ease by allowing domestic credit creation to flow offshore via a weakening $CNY,” he said. A declining yuan, Hayes noted, may push Chinese investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge.
In Japan, he forecast similar action. “Y not run a weak $JPY policy by ramping up QE to counter the new tariff rate?” Hayes asked, predicting the USD/JPY could reach 160 and beyond. He argued that central banks in Asia may increase liquidity to offset tariff shocks, a move that historically boosts demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Fed Easing and Investor Demand
Domestically, Hayes expects the Federal Reserve to respond to tariff-induced economic stress by cutting rates. “The 2yr treasury yield dumped after tariff annc,” Hayes noted, citing it as a market signal anticipating monetary easing and a possible restart of quantitative easing (QE). Lower interest rates tend to drive demand for high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, echoed the sentiment earlier in February. “In a world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates… risk assets in the US will fly through the roof,” Park said, urging followers to “bookmark this” prediction.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,150, according to CoinMarketCap, as investors weigh the long-term implications of global monetary shifts driven by tariff escalations and currency responses.
