According to BlackRock’s global head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, Bitcoin could thrive in a U.S. recession, benefiting from increased fiscal spending, monetary stimulus, and growing concerns over economic stability.
“If you look at Bitcoin fundamentally on a long-term basis, it really seems like an asset that should be uncorrelated or even inversely correlated against certain risk factors that exist,”
Mitchnick said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. While Bitcoin often moves with broader financial markets in the short term, its underlying economic drivers differ significantly from traditional risk-on assets like stocks.
Mitchnick said Bitcoin has faced market misperceptions, often incorrectly categorized as a risk-on asset.
“There are periods where it does have these short-term correlation spikes,”
He explained, citing recent sell-offs driven by broader economic fears. However, he argued that Bitcoin’s fundamental characteristics—a globally scarce, non-sovereign asset—position it differently from traditional equities.
Mitchnick pointed to industry narratives that have amplified Bitcoin’s association with broader risk assets.
“Some of what we’ve seen lately seems to be self-fulfilling and actually a self-inflicted wound by some of the research and commentary that the industry does,”
he said. He noted that traders had started linking Bitcoin’s performance to factors like tariffs and economic uncertainty despite no clear fundamental connection.
Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin ETFs
BlackRock has played a leading role in Bitcoin’s institutional adoption, primarily through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which holds $48.7 billion in net assets. While Bitcoin ETFs saw historic growth in 2024, 2025 has begun with outflows.
“We’ve seen some outflows in the category, relatively modest in the context of the overall asset base, which is close to $100 billion,”
Mitchnick said.
He attributed the decline to hedge funds unwinding their spot futures arbitrage trades rather than long-term investors exiting the market.
“A lot of that outflow that we’ve seen so far seems to be a little bit of a hedge fund unwinding of the spot features arbitrage trade and less so in sort of the more long buy-and-hold directional investors that make up the fund,”
He explained.
Despite recent market corrections, Mitchnick said BlackRock’s institutional clients remain confident.
“Some of the most sophisticated long-term Bitcoin accumulators are pretty excited about this dip,”
He described the downturn as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of weakness.
Mitchnick argued that Bitcoin’s core attributes make it well-positioned to benefit from recessionary conditions. “Bitcoin is long liquidity in the system,” he said, explaining that it thrives on increased fiscal spending, deficit accumulation, lower interest rates, and monetary stimulus—economic policies that typically emerge during recessions. He also cited social instability as another potential catalyst.
“It’s catalyzed to some extent over just fears of general social disorder,”
He added.
Market skepticism remains, with some analysts questioning Bitcoin’s resilience. Researchers from cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase recently noted that fears of a U.S. recession and newly imposed tariffs have contributed to a downturn in the broader crypto market.
“Fears of a dramatic U.S. economic slowdown or even recession have caused sentiment to turn sharply,”
Coinbase Institutional said in a March 17 report.
Mitchnick dismissed concerns that economic uncertainty would diminish Bitcoin’s appeal, arguing instead that it could fuel demand.
“A recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” he said. “Certainly, the way the market seems to be commenting on it, I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but it’s an important factor to consider.”
