Bitcoin’s price history suggests an imminent surge, with analysts pointing to seasonal trends that have previously driven the cryptocurrency to record highs.
Timothy Peterson, a network economist, believes Bitcoin could reach $126,000 by June, citing past performance data and the timing of its most significant gains.
Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a consistent seasonal pattern, with Peterson identifying April and October as the most profitable months for the cryptocurrency.
“Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in two months: April and October,”
Peterson wrote on X, alongside a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s price behavior over the years.
Peterson’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin typically lingers near the lower boundary of its seasonal range during the first quarter of the year. This trend has held true in 2024, with Bitcoin experiencing a 30% decline from its mid-January peak.
If historical patterns persist, Bitcoin could see a sharp rally starting in April, with Peterson emphasizing the possibility of a new all-time high before June.
His chart indicates that Bitcoin’s median price trajectory aligns with a target of $126,000 by June 1, based on the historical growth of $100 invested in Bitcoin over time. “Bitcoin average time below trend = 4 months,” Peterson noted, suggesting that the current downturn is temporary.
Technical Indicators Align with Bullish Outlook
Peterson also pointed to a looming “death cross” for the U.S. dollar, a technical signal where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. According to his research, this phenomenon has historically led to significant Bitcoin gains.
“Since 2015, this signal has always been bullish for Bitcoin,” he stated, noting that the median nine-month forward return in such cases is 200%, compared to the usual 57%.
Another prominent analyst, known as Rekt Capital, echoed Peterson’s sentiment. He identified five major corrections in Bitcoin’s current market cycle, with 22% to 33% pullbacks.
The latest correction, which saw Bitcoin drop 28% from its recent highs, is consistent with previous retracements that preceded strong rebounds.
“Corrections are a part of the cycle,” Rekt Capital wrote, arguing that the latest downturn is not unusual but a standard phase within Bitcoin’s broader uptrend.
Market Analysts View Current Lows as a Shakeout
Analysts at Bitfinex suggested that the recent Bitcoin dip is a “shakeout” rather than a reversal of the overall bullish trend. Their perspective aligns with Peterson’s data-driven projections, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin entering a high-growth phase as April approaches.
With Bitcoin trading near $82,911, investors are closely watching for signs of a breakout. If historical price action holds true, the coming months could see Bitcoin reenter price discovery, setting new records ahead of June.
